Although recent polling continues to bode poorly for Donald Trump, CNN analyst Harry Enten said Saturday that the president still has a “decent chance” of defeating Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. As was the case in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, the columnist speculated that Trump could emerge victorious by taking the Electoral College.
Enten acknowledged that the odds are stacked against Trump, particularly when it comes to winning the popular vote. But while the analyst said there is just a one-in-20 chance that the president wins the public election, he claimed that the Electoral College is a different matter altogether.
“Instead, Trump still has a decent chance because of the possibility of a popular vote/Electoral College split,” he wrote. “We don’t know the true extent to which Trump has a better shot in the Electoral College than he does in the popular vote, but we know it exists.”
With the president down 10 points nationally as of Saturday, Enten predicted that he needs a seven-point boost to win the Electoral College.
“One baseline is assuming Trump does about three points better in the state that determines the Electoral College winner than he does in the popular vote,” he wrote, explaining the basis for his prediction.
According to Enten, there is around a one-in-seven chance that Trump gains seven points on his opponent between now and Election Day. The CNN analyst noted that other statistical models that were created by publications like The Economist and FiveThirtyEight have come to similar conclusions and said the likelihood of such a scenario is “not nothing.”
“Trump’s chance of winning is nearly as good as you throwing the die and hitting a six on your first roll of the die.”
The prospect of Trump again defying the polls appears to have rattled some Democrats. As The Inquisitr reported, party operatives have been warning voters not to get complacent in the face of a slew of recent polls showing Biden holding a double-digit lead.
Guy Cecil, the chairman of the largest Democratic Super PAC, Priorities USA, expressed his concerns, as the committee’s internal data shows Trump leading in Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, despite public polls that have suggested otherwise.
Still, the president’s recent missteps have created openings for his Democratic opponent to solidify his lead. CNN reporter Eric Bradner on Saturday pointed to the signs suggesting that the electoral map is shifting in favor of Biden, who he argued now has multiple paths to gaining the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to take the White House.